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Warriors vs. Suns NBA Odds & Picks: Expect Tired Legs Before All-Star Break (March 4) - The Action Network

3 months ago 47

Editor’s note: Draymond Green and Stephen Curry person been ruled retired for Thursday’s roadworthy crippled against the Phoenix Suns.

Warriors Odds +5 
Suns Odds -5 
Over/Under 223 
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass
Odds arsenic of Wednesday nighttime and via PointsBet.

We did it, y’all. We made it to All-Star Break. This is the last crippled earlier the break, and past it’s yet a week disconnected for the exhausted players and fans aft a frenzied whirlwind archetypal half.

The Warriors whitethorn not person overmuch near successful the tank. Golden State is connected the 2nd nighttime of a back-to-back. The Warriors spent the backmost fractional of February cavorting each implicit the East Coast with a large trip, and present they’re bouncing astir the West Coast — LA a fewer days ago, up to Portland past night, present backmost successful Phoenix tonight. Golden State was missing its centers for astir of that, and Klay Thompson is inactive successful thoroughfare clothes. This is simply a bushed team.

The Suns? They’re flying precocious aft Tuesday night’s triumph implicit the Lakers, adjacent without Devin Booker down the stretch. That triumph pushed Phoenix into the West 2-seed and into the nationalist limelight. The Suns person won 12 of 14, with the 2 losses by conscionable 7 points combined, and they’ll nary uncertainty anticipation to caput into the All-Star Break connected a precocious note.

Will the Warriors person thing near successful the vessel to propulsion them?

Golden State Warriors

Remember the panic astir the Warriors astatine the commencement of the season? Golden State mislaid the opener to Kevin Durant’s Nets by 26, past fell to the Bucks by 39 connected Christmas a fewer days later. Everyone panicked and wrote disconnected Steph Curry and the Warriors, but determination was conscionable 1 small problem: Draymond Green wasn’t playing yet.

Golden State has been a wholly antithetic squad with a steadfast and motivated Green connected the floor. The Warriors entered Wednesday with the No. 4 Defensive Efficiency successful the full league, per Basketball Reference. Their defence has gotten amended and amended arsenic the play has gone along. Check retired the reddish Warriors enactment connected their ratio graph below:

Draymond is an implicit wrecking shot defensively, and helium changes everything for this squad connected that end. Green is getting assistance from relation players similar Kelly Oubre and Andrew Wiggins, but he’s the motor here.

Draymond has go the motor of the discourtesy too. I saw idiosyncratic connected Twitter telephone him Assists Rodman, and I can’t get it retired of my head. Green had a dud against the Lakers his past clip out, but helium was averaging 11.7 assists per crippled implicit his erstwhile 12 games, with conscionable 7.3 points. Golden State leads the full league successful assists per crippled astatine 28.0. Green is fundamentally doing everything but scoring.

The scoring falls mostly connected Curry, and he’s playing astatine an MVP level again. The occupation is that he’s conscionable not getting overmuch help, extracurricular of Green’s creation. Curry has a 119 violative standing this play connected the court. When he’s not playing, Golden State plummets to 91 points per 100. That is simply a massive, catastrophic drop-off, and it’s wherefore the Warriors inactive fertile bottommost 10 successful Offensive Efficiency overall, contempt Curry’s heroics. They fundamentally can’t triumph unless helium has a immense crippled due to the fact that they can’t people enough.

So tin Curry person a large crippled connected the 2nd fractional of a back-to-back against a pugnacious defence hitting connected each cylinder?


Phoenix Suns

The Suns person abruptly emerged arsenic the West 2-seed astatine 23-11, up of some LA squads. Phoenix entered Wednesday ranked 3rd successful the NBA successful Net Rating astatine +6.1. While this whitethorn consciousness a spot surprising, possibly it shouldn’t be.

Phoenix has lone mislaid by much than 8 points doubly each season. The Suns started the play beardown and person been beardown successful caller weeks. They did swoon successful the middle, but that was due to the fact that astir fractional the squad was missing and successful wellness protocols during that stretch. When Phoenix has been whole, the Suns person had a dynamic seat that dominates stretches of games. Phoenix has besides taken a superior measurement guardant defensively this year, and the Suns are uncovering their discourtesy lately too.

Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Devin Booker #1 and Chris Paul #3 of Phoenix Suns.

Chris Paul conscionable wants to win, and he’s been sacrificing immoderate scoring and shots lately to elevate Devin Booker. Booker’s scoring is backmost up aft an early-season dip, and the equilibrium betwixt these 2 has pushed the discourtesy guardant portion relation players similar Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, and Dario Saric sound down shots.

Phoenix rebounds good and plays a batch of defense, and Curry volition surely person his hands afloat with CP3 and Mikal hounding him each night. The Suns let the fewest assists per crippled of immoderate NBA squad astatine 21.9, which makes for an absorbing opposition with the Warriors’ shot movement. Phoenix besides allows the second-fewest threes per crippled and the 2nd -lowest 3-point percent astatine 34.3%.

The Suns besides play the league’s second-slowest pace, truthful that affects immoderate of those “lowest” numbers of course, but volition the Warriors beryllium capable to people if they’re not getting those Draymond assists and Steph threes?

Warriors-Suns Pick

If it’s not evident yet, I hatred this spot for the Warriors. It’s a roadworthy crippled connected the 2nd nighttime of a back-to-back, and the squad is exhausted and acceptable for a break.

Even the small matchups favour Phoenix. The Suns volition person a large rebounding edge. The Warriors besides foul opponents arsenic overmuch arsenic anyone, and the Suns typically fertile dormant past successful escaped propulsion complaint but deed 84% of their freebies, 2nd champion successful the league. That means much casual points for the Suns, portion the Warriors whitethorn not find scoring truthful casual to travel by.

Still, I’m terrified of betting against Steph Curry due to the fact that Curry has dominated Chris Paul successful caller years and tin bash this each connected his ain if helium gets hot. So portion I thin toward the Suns, I’m going different absorption here, particularly with the precocious line.

I’m taking the nether alternatively and banking connected a operation of large defense, dilatory pace, and bushed teams. Maybe the Warriors conscionable don’t amusement up. Maybe it’s a pugnacious crippled with some defenses controlling things arsenic the Suns dilatory the gait mode down against a bushed Warriors squad. Heck, possibly Steph does person a large game, but the Suns can’t lucifer it. The crippled nether gives maine a small borderline for mistake for that large Curry crippled portion inactive playing the wide trends that favour a debased scoring crippled here.

I’ll instrumentality the nether astatine 223 and play it down to 221.5.

Pick: Game nether 223 (bet down to 221.5)

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